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zero in on a state with very different concerns, nevada. it, too, has six electoral votes up for grabs, but unlike iowa nevada is racked by the housing market and has the highest unemployment in the nation. why does the president hold a slim lead in the silver state? let's put it through the spin cycle. i think we all have nevada going blue? >> yes. >> remarkably, we all agree on something. >> we all agree on nevada. >> never happened before. >> yeah. i have it going blue because primarily because of early voting. early voting in nevada has 48,000 more democrats than republicans going to the polls in early voting, casting 700,000 votes. if projections go as planned and they get an 80% turnout, that means 70% of the votes have already been cast there. so me, that seems a pretty good indication of where this state is going. i'll give sail ver lia silver l mitt romney, and that is a lot like colorado. nevada has a very high mormon population. 7%, which is actually fairly high, and again, mormons accounted for a quarter of the electorate in the caucuses. so i think if they turn out in big
in wisconsin and iowa. they think they can win in nevada. they think that romney's going into pittsburgh tonight. he was in philadelphia yesterday. they think that pennsylvania is a head fake, a faint. i think they realize that they not going to win, obviously. north carolina and indiana, two states they won before. they think there is a firewall in the midwest and the three states they want are ohio, wisconsin, and iowa and nevada and, if they win those four states, they'll be all right. they don't have to win florida and virginia then. >> one thing we know by tomorrow night, we won't know the answer to any of those questions. >> exactly. >> we thank you. mark. as the candidates move on, mitt romney will end the evening in new hampshire and the president's going home to chicago. >> all right, guys. election officials in d.c. say about 52,000 people voted early this year. more than twice as early in the september 2010 primary and that is adding up to more than 10% of the population. comes with long waits, two hours or more in some cases. >> yes, we k. >>> supporters of maryland's questio
in a world of hurt. connell: and coming up, harry reid, his home state still up in the air in nevada. we are going to have live reports from vegas what the election talk is out there today. are people feeling a little scared today? not so much, but the yield on the 10-year is down. 1.68% for a 10-year yield. [ male announcer ] this is joe woods' first day of work. and his new boss told him twongs -- cook what you love, and save your money. joe doesn't know it yet, but he'll wk his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and me from the great northwest. he'll start investing early, he'll find some gd people to help guide him, nd he'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common nse. from td ameritrade. >> i'm lori rothman with your fox business brief. the service sector grew pat a slightly slower than expected pace. because of the institute of supply management index of manufacturing activity. down from a six month high in september. brazilian sugar manufacturer will take over u.s. base
of the hour we'll take you to nevada and wisconsin. first, back to sole dad. >>> at the end of the day, it's all going to be about the math. in order to win, you have to hit the magic number of 270 electoral votes. let's get to christine romans who is crunching the numbers. >> the rose to 270. what if it were a draw at 269? it's possible. there are four 269 scenarios. statistically, there are 120 different scenarios. four with the swing states. this is hypothetical, remember. the map is assuming that states that are actually leaning go in the direction that they're leaning right now. wisconsin, ohio, and new hampshire, new hampshire with the four electoral votes, if they go for obama and romney wins nevada, colorado, iowa, virginia, and the 29 over there in florida, then you're at a tie. worst nightmare for both parties. 269 each. now a note for iowa here, this is assuming it goes red, it goes for romney with the six electoral votes. recent polls there showing a slight lead, actually, for obama. if wisconsin and ohio vote democrat, you know, technically you could think -- you could conclud
in wisconsin. miguel marquez is in nevada. once again, ohio critical battleground state. the state's 18 electoral votes are the second biggest swing state prize behind florida. tell us, first of all, the strategy for the president and mitt romney in ohio. we are just talking just hours away from when people actually start voting. >> you're right. there's a sense here that things are really building to something very critical, but until the strategy question you, and it's simple. they have to get in the last word, and then their organization is getting out the vote, and it's the getting out of the vote, especially in ohio and the other swing states, that is going to be key. organization. that's truly going to play a factor. the lindz were big other the weekend, but they have been building throughout the day today, and you really get a sense from people here that they know ohio is a critical state, and this is a crucial time to all of them. they've been serving hot coffee to people in loin. the police are here to make sure they keep growing. they've been bothered by all those robo calls,
marquez is in las vegas, nevada. ed lavandera is in denver, colorado, for us this morning. john zarrella comes to us live from plantation, florida. we want to begin with complete comprehensive coverage with john berman checking in to see how our correspondents are faring. >> thanks, soledad. the candidates are all over the place today. president obama and mitt romney hold atriallies in seven states today. a final frenetic day of campaigning across the battleground. for the president, he begins in wisconsin, a state that has voted true blue since 1984 but it is almost always close. and with paul ryan a native wisconsin son on the republican ticket, the obama team is taking no chances. they've called in the cavalry to help, including the boss, bruce springsteen to seal the deal. dan lothian is live in madison, wisconsin. good morning, dan. >> good morning, and you're right, bruce springsteen will be warming up the crowd here with a 30-minute concert before the president comes out. the campaign has been using these big names not only to draw in big audiences, but also to energize them. i ca
nevada, those four states, romney could win with pennsylvania and then the other swing states. >> virginia -- >> and florida. it's not his best -- it's not where he would want to be at this point in the campaign. but looking at where the polls have been in ohio all year, i think they think it's worth a shot. >> you think it makes a difference on the last day, the day people are voting for a candidate to show up in pennsylvania and ohio? >> here's the thing about that. in those other states, early voting is well under way and most of each sides' votes have already been banked. pennsylvania doesn't have a big early voting program. so everyone that's going to vote in pennsylvania is going to vote on tuesday. so he might think, maybe this is my chance, i have a captive audience there because obama hasn't been there much. and i've got more votes that are available to me in pennsylvania. >> we're all spending so much time thinking about ohio. but is there another state you're looking at closely right now? >> the thing i'm looking at is some of these states where hispanics are a risi
're going to win nevada. we're going to win new hampshire. i think we have an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. and it also could be close. >> check those numbers bhap do you make of those states? is that a good list? >> i think the ceiling is somewhere 300, 303 if you want to be exact the numbers i've done. if you throw in north carolina it could be 318 max. that's possible. they could all be 51, 49 at the end of the day. i do want to say i think a lot of us, we're sort of victims of 2004. before 2004 we were all more convinced of the challenger incumbent rule. that somehow challengers always got the undecided and then a tie goes to the challenger. then you're happened when bush won frankly as many of the undecided as he did. then you'd have to go back to '76 the last time the person with momentum lost at the end. lost the popular vote. that was ford. ford had the momentum but carter won in the end. even gore, he had the last-second momentum. he did win the popular vote. having the momentum has it in the end. >> what's it going to mean for obama
in nevada, 70s and 80s, colorado with 60s and sun shine here. maybe rain, eastern iowa, wintry mix, northern wisconsin, 40s and 50s. cold in new hampshire, but dry and sunny. virginia may be not too bad. back into florida, jacksonville and orlando could be looking at showers and storms. the rest of the state won't be an issue. today 25 to 35. chilly tomorrow around 50. nor'easter wednesday 5. potential wintry mix wednesday night. let's go to man cay at 5:17. timesaver traffic. >> thank you, howard. if you are planning to head over to the beltway, overall generally things are looking good. you see that red forming there, that is because of a deer struck right before you get to route 202 right after the split here along the left side of the roadway. already slowing things down. keep that in mind, although it is against the rush hour. let's take a live look over in oxen hill on the beltway, traffic moving well here, if you are heading to the wilson bridge, it looks pretty much like this as well. back over to our maps, 270 southbound, closer in, rockville, bethesda. over to the beltway and the a
think we're going to win iowa, wisconsin, we're going to win nevada, we're going to win new hampshire. i think we've got an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. >> don't just vote. bring your mom. bring your dad. bring your cousin. knock on the door of your neighbor. because let me tell you something, the middle class depends on it. it literally depends on it. >> the vice president took on mitt romney's latest lie about jeep sending jobs to china. >> scare the hell -- scare the heck out of these people and it's flat false. absolutely flat fall. it's the most cynical play i've seen and, you know, there is an editorial in the denver post saying this goes to character. it's not just a lie, but it goes to character. >> while most of the attention is on ohio, a record breaking crowd gathered in concord, new hampshire. president obama was joined by one of the best retail politicians in the business. former president bill clinton. >> 20 years and nine months ago, new hampshire began the chance for me to become president. i have worked very hard in this campaign
. who is actually showing up, who is casting ballots, and, states like ohio, iowa, nevada, florida, we're doing very, very well. what they are doing is comparing this to 2008, and you and i have had the discussion. i am not suggesting we will win by the same margin we won in 2008. and, they are comparing themselves to john mccain, who had virtually no ground operation in many of these states, so, yes, they will do better than john mccain did and we may not do as well as we did in 2008, but, we are doing plenty well and well enough to win the race. >> chris: let me ask you, briefly, about florida, where president obama is down by more than a point, in the polls. and yet you are making your final advertising by the campaign there. in florida. why not in the state you must win? >> well, first of all, we feel very competitive in the state of florida. there have been a spate of polls, in fact in all of these polls, battle ground state polls that came out the last 48 hours, we are ahead in 90% of them, including florida. and there were a couple of mixed polls in florida, but we are very plea
, nevada, colorado, iowa, ohio, and wisconsin. >>> and finally, it is halloween in new jersey. governor christie postponed last week's celebrations until today as a result of sandy. so there you go. all day long you can stay on top of the very latest developments in those stories and others as they break on msnbc. tonight, be sure to watch brian williams with "nbc nightly news." >>> here's a look at what's coming up later on the "today" show. a look at the first lady of fashion and the style of the candidates' wives. and coach of "the voice" christina aguilera dishes on this season's standout contestants. now keep it on this channel for continuing local news, weather, sports, and much more. i'm veronica de la cruz. thank you so much for watching "early today," just your first stop of the day today on your nbc station. have a terrific monday.
, in virginia, even in ohio what they saw as a lead or slight lead now has slipped. novemb nevada off the table. it's changed this race. charlie and norah? >> political director john dickerson and national journal white house correspondent major garrett have been with us throughout this campaign. welcome. >> good to be with you. >> an exciting race. >> indeed, it is. >> let me start with john. what's the pathway, possible pathway for governor romney? >> well, let's start context. if we look at the map and we assign those states that are red states and blue states to the two candidates, president obama starts with 237. romney starts with 191. the president's already got a head start. and that means that if you look at all the possible scenarios, president obama has about 431 ways he can get to 270. mitt romney had just 76. let's look at mitt romney. the best possible scenario for him is that he wins florida. we'll give florida to him. then we'll give him the other big one, ohio. 18 electoral votes. then 15 in north carolina. let's give him 13 in virginia. still not there yet. 266. this gives you
like a good deal of sunshine. now in the battleground states on election day, nevada into colorado look at that nice sunshine there. 83 vegas, 16 in denver. western iowa looks fine. in dubuque looks wet and chilly. around 40 ohio. no excuses there for voting. same in new hampshire. it will be cold in 30s and 40s, wilmington and asheville and even charlotte may be looking at rain before the day is over. in western florida the weather looks good, jacksonville down to orlando. wet showers and thunderstorms on election day. 52 today, tonight 20s and 30s. tomorrow around 30 on election day. wednesday nor'easter, 45. there is potential, not saying it is set in stone, but want you to be aware that late wednesday night we may get wintry weather we'll have to deal with. look at this, we are going to warm up nicely. we should be back well into the 60s. the heart walk saturday morning, looking forward to that. monika, time save traffic? >>> traffic moving really well this morning. traffic is good on the beltway, we are going to zoom in on the northbound side from triangle all lanes are open. in fa
that confident tonight? >> at the end of the day it all comes down to turnout. in a state like nevada, more than 70% will vote by election day we have a 70,000 vote lead there. we have more than 100,000 vote advantage in the bank at this time. we signed up more than 6,600 volunteer shifts for the get out the vote program. it all comes down to turnout in the final hours. >> well, you have the turnout, it looks like. if these early voting hours have been cut, how much concern is that to you? >> well, we have a voter protection team on the ground and right here in chicago that took quick action in florida yesterday. miami-dade and palm beach announced early voting tomorrow. so we're going to make sure that everybody's vote counts. if you're in line, stay in line. we're going to make sure it happens through the final hours. >> the romney campaign says it has numbers showing that they're going to win ohio. is that a bluff? >> well, i think we heard a lot of bluffing from the romney campaign for days that says they have an intensity advantage on their side. look no further than the fact that mitt romn
in florida, ohio and new hampshire and paul ryan in colorado nevada and iowa. >> i want to show what you real change looks like because i fought for it. because i delivered t. we can't give up on it now. >> we hoped president obama would live up to his promise to bring people together to solve big problems but he hasn't. and i will. >> polls show the race is dead looked. 49% of likely votersobama and 48% romney. nearly every poll is just that close. we already know this tens of millions of people have cost ballot because of early voting. certainly this will be one big day for both campaigns. >> nfl fans in for pig contingent and politics. they are taping interviews that will take place in "monday night football." chris berman will handle them. tonight the interviews will air during halftime of the monday night game. some lesser known presidential candidates working. four such candidates debated sunday night in northwest d.c. including gary johnson of the libertarian volumes. jill stein, virgil goode and rocky anderson of the justice party. ralph nader moderated the
of possible voter fraud, and election irregularities. let's start in nevada where the clark county republican party saying someone is sending out fake robo calls under the name the republican conservative caucus, and they are endorsing democrats. meanwhile in las vegas authorities have arrested a woman for allegedly voting twice. they say that roxanne ruben voted a week ago today and tried to do it a later in the week. she is a registered republican. in oregon a county clerk is under investigation for ballot tampering. the clerk is suspected of filling in the blanks that voters left empty on their ballots. oregon's secretary of state kay brown is sending in election monitors. >> i want or bega organ citizenoregon citizens to know we are taking this very seriously. >> in ohio there are questions about this vacant lot. it turns out 18 people are registered to vote from here. the owner of the lot tells us a trailer park was taken out three years ago. the ohio integrity project has challenged those because they believe they could be used for voter fraud. >> it makes me angry that nobody has done
. of the remaining states on the board between nevada, iowa, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, new hampshire, what is the best scenario that you see, or maybe the more likely scenario to get him from 257 to a minimum of 269? >> iowa, new hampshire. bill: okay, we'll give him iowa with 6 electoral votes and new hampshire checks in at 4. and would put him at 267. >> right. bill: you. bill: you still have nevada, wisconsin, michigan. is the most likely scenario there, is it wisconsin or what would you argue? >> wisconsin or nevada. i know that nevada is going to be very close, the democrats have got even about the base number that they need for a lead in early voting, but republican enthusiasm as am in the cow counties is high. it's going to be a narrow victory for either side. i think the most likely is nevada and wisconsin. bill: what is the likely scenario for the president? he's going to three different states today. he's at 201, okay. so if he were to go to wisconsin, ohio, and iowa just today, so give him wisconsin, iowa, and the state of ohio, he's at 237. so on the remaining map here you see
built was one to win a close race. but if you look at nevada, iowa, ohio, florida, virginia, new hampshire, colorado, all of these states we think the president is in a good position to win. and we think governor romney is playing defense. he is spending his last day in florida and virginia on monday. states that they were telling you in the media a few weeks ago they thought were done deals. they are far from done deals. i'd rather be the president today than romney in terms of those two states. >> i talked about the american firewall for president obama. you seem to be up in ohio at least a couple of points based on polling i've seen. a new poll from "the des moines register" has you up five in iowa. do you believe ohio and iowa are done deals in the president's column? >> david, not until the polls close. so we feel good about our position in both those states. we think we have done terrific in terms of the early vote. it's important to understand, for governor romney to win ohio, iowa, north carolina, he'll have to carry election day by a huge margin, and we think we'll do ve
's grocery store in northern california and nevada. the walkout began after contract talks broke off yesterday. the issue, there are many, medical benefits, elimination of premium pay for working sundays a proposed pay freeze. >> okay with the freeze. we just want to keep what we have and keep the medical that we have with the union but they want to take that away. basically when we retired they probably -- we would have no medical. >> raley's says it needs to cut costs because of a growing number of stores selling groceries now. this is the first strike in its 77-year history. >>> encouraging news for drivers. prices at the pump have been dropping steadily over the past couple of weeks. the lundberg survey says prices dropped 21 cents since mid- october alone. the national average for a gallon of regular is now 3.55. however, in california, as we all know, a little higher, $3.98. and san francisco still holding the distinction for the nation's highest gas prices, $4.05 for a gallon here in the city. >> that's a distinction we don't want. >> no. we have had it for quite a while. >> n
to watch what hispanics do in crucial states like colorado, nevada and florida. it is no surprise that those states are being bombarded by political ads en espanol. historically, latinos tend to vote more for democrats than republicans and that won't change, presuming president barack obama will get the majority of the hispanic vote 3 to 1. but if mitt romney can get more than a third of the latino vote, it will be a very, very close election. the most important issues for latinos are jobs, education and health care, but immigration defines who is with us and who is against us. immigration is personal. president barack obama wants to legalize millions of undocumented immigrants. mitt romney says he doesn't want an amnesty even though he talks about a permanent solution. jobs might not be as important for latinos as immigration. we'll see that on tuesday, david. >> jorge ramos, thank you. >>> on tuesday night here, diane sawyer, george stephanopoulos and our times square election headquarters. jake tapper with the president, i'll be with mitt romney. the entire powerhouse political
. i think the out liar is michigan. i think his uaw stuff will help the president. they carry nevada. other than that i don't see him winning any of these states. >> we have 20 seconds left under your scenario governor romney can lose ohio and you will wind. 325. >>> ohio was over rated. pennsylvania, questions questions and a good shot footbal >>> we will be watching. i have this tape. like i sayou are either really smart. you told me accountable. >> florida congressman allen pest, 29 electoral votes. not atornadoing dick morris is here and joe tripy is here next. chances are, you're not made of money, so don't overpay for motorcycle insurance. geico, see how much you could save. just in time for the polaris holiday sales event. get financing as low as 2.99% on all polaris atvs and side-by-sides including the new twenty-thirteens. plus rebates up to one thousand dollars on select twenty-twelves. incredible deals on... legendary sportsman... powerful rangers... and razor sharp razors. financing as low as 2.99% and rebates up to one thousand dollars ends december 31st. get all the det
in florida, then it's on to virginia, ohio, finally, new hampshire. paul ryan heads to nevada, colorado, ohio and wisconsin. all right. take a look at this. yes, that is new jersey governor chris christie greeting homeland security chief as the pair toured a relief center in hoboken sunday. christie last sun said he didn't give a damn about the presidential election as he dealt with the disaster. on sunday he laughed at the notion that he wasn't still loyal to mitt romney. >> i don't understand why telling the president of the united states he's done a good job when he's done a good job equals an endorsement. fact of matter is, mitt romney knows this, by the way, so does the president of the united states. i endorsed mitt romney 13 months ago because i thought he was the best guy for the job. on tuesday i'm voting for mitt romney because i think he's the best guy for the job. it doesn't mean i can't turn to the president of the united states of america and say to him, thank you, sir, for providing good leadership in this crisis and helping the people of new jersey and extend my hand of friend
many americans are looking to you in repo, here in nevada and a handful of states like my own, and they're looking to you to make sure that you cast is your vote for real change. >> and romney and his wife will vote tomorrow and then they will visit two more states tomorrow. he wants to campaign until the polls closed, so he will be going back to the key state of ohio and visiting pennsylvania as l. live in boston, jennifer davis, fox news. >> and on to election eve, the polls are coming out and many show the race neck-in-neck and that can for shadow -- foreshadow what is to come. >> reporter: the polls are coming fast and furious and i got the latest in from that washington post/abc news and they putting it nationally as the 50% mitt romney at 47% and i want to start with the new york times, this is the 5:38 blog. this is a statistical analysis they put together not only combining the polls, but also how the vote is going in the battleground states. they're saying tomorrow that president obama in his opinion has an 86% chance of being re- elected and that mitt romney has a 13% chance a
and nevada. both of these states well over half of voters have already voted and we can even tell you a little about how they have voted or at least who has voted. in both of these states democrats have outnumbered republicans in the early vote, diane, and that is what put obama over the top last time around. but i've got to tell you also that the democrats have a smaller advantage, a significantly smaller advantage than they had four years ago pointing to a much closer night tomorrow. >> close night, thank you, jon. >>> we'll have more on this close election in a moment. but we want to tell you now what happened today in that other big story we have been following, hurricane sandy. and the aftermath. tonight, tens of thousands of families still facing the dark and the freezing cold and this picture says so much. pray hard. all day our abc family has been teaming up for a special day of giving for the families who need it more than ever as they brace now for another storm coming in. it is the new worry, a wet and windy nor'easter gathering strength over the gulf right now and expected
about iowa and nevada. they think they're ahead by a little there florida. and they may be right. but republicans tend to do better at getting their voters out on election day, so they can turn all that around and the romney people are arguing that the enthusiasm and the intensity they're seeing at their rallies will make that happen. i have to say, when you clear away all the spin, it is coming down to one thing: turnout. which side gets their voters to the polls tomorrow? and just to add that one note of suspense to all of that: it's that storm heading toward florida tonight. >> pelley: bob, thank you very much. as you know, under our constitution we don't vote directly for a presidential candidate, we are choosing electors for each of the candidates. each state has many as electors has it has members of congress and the senate. it takes 270 of those electors to win and our political director john dickerson is here to show us how each candidate could reach that number. john? >> scott, all 50 states contribute electoral votes to that 270 number. but cbs news estimates that 41 of
comunidad latina sabemos que va a ser decisiva en colorado, nevada, en florida, pero tambien en estados como ohio, virginia, carolina del norte, van a ser decisivos tambien. unas encuestas nacionales este lunes, favorecieron levemente al presidente, pero todo dependera de la asistencia a las urnas. standup: fernando pizarro, washington d.c. "la campana de romney anuncio que haran actos de campana el mismo dia de elecciones, ya que el gobernador tras votar en massachusetts ira a ohio y pennsylvania. desde washington, fernando pizarro, univision. y si va a votar en virginia, un estado clave en estas elecciones, no solo votara por el proximo presidente, sino tambien encontrara una serie de preguntas en la boleta de votacion. claudia uceda nos tiene los detalles.. .. varios grupos de maryland continuan sus esfuerzos de ultima hora para influenciar a los votantes antes de las elecciones de manana martes... el debate se centra en particular en el referendum sobre el dream act, los matrimonios del mismo sexo y los juegos de azar... lilian mas nos cuenta los detalles... el momento que definirÁ quie
marching on. >> what you are talking about, odette, in two swing states, nevada and colorado, is going to be the key. i've been to those states. early, get out the vote, among the latino grass roots activists there, it's huge. and that could give president obama the margin there. >> belva: women, gender. >> women, you know, we had this week sandra fluke here in the bay area. reproductive rights activists. look, women have been for obama, he's enjoyed this gender gap for a long time. and in the last couple of weeks, romney has managed to shave that down, very concerning to the reproductive rights groups and they've really been working this vote all over the country and the fact is that they tracked what they say is about 5 million women who they call obama defectors who may go to the other side, go to mitt romney and that could be a key margin in some of these swing states. >> he's got ads out there that suggest he's not going to be activist on that issue. you're right about the issue of obama care for a lot of women. birth control is an economic issue. and that's one of the things demo
we're going to win wisconsin, nevada, new hampshire. i think we've got an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. and it also could be close. >> good morning. look at that, how beautiful. we are here. we are here. what are we, a day away? this is so exciting. good morning, everyone. >> he said it wasn't going to be close. and then he said it was going to be close. maybe he was talking about president clinton. >> it's monday, november 5th, the day before election day. we have with us mike barnicle, senior political analyst, mark halperin, willie's just walked in. i don't know why you're laughing. >> me? >> no, mike. >> this lighting is disturbing. i don't know who did it. i don't like it. i'm just going to say that right up front. but i'm happy this weekend -- today because this weekend there was a huge sporting event that all the world tuned to. and i can tell you i've never been more proud of the vanderbilt commodores, dudley stadium. >> no, they went on the road and did that. they went to kentucky, to commonwealth stadium. sure. 40-0, 5-4. mika, o
, but it think it will be tough to overcome the top of the ticket impact. >> stay out west in nevada, third congressional district. >> joe heck, the congressman, this is the type of district the democrats should be challenging in if they wanted to win the majority. this is suburban las vegas clark county district come place where democrats should be doing very well. and write the democrats are having a tough time going after joe heck. democratic nominee is john, a former leader in the statehouse, but what's interesting is even though he has the influential position in the state legislature from its after talking talking about his record as a firefighter. they're not even mentioning that he's a politician because that label is not one to want to have. answer right now joe heck has the advantage that if democrats are having a better night than we expect, they would need to do better in this type of district's. california is a solid blue state for the president. but a couple of interesting house races in that state. >> well, california normally as handicappers we can almost ignore the state ev
that iowa and nevada are more or less won. early vote and demographic advantages they built and ground game advantages. you put those three together that's done they also believe they have a very good chance in new hampshire. a senior obama adviser said new hampshire is like chinatown for jake guinness. we feel about it but it leaves us a bit squeamish. >> let's talk about ohio because that has been the focus of so much of our attention ohio. it looks like that state is trending towards president obama. is that why we saw governor romney make a play for wisconsin, for pennsylvania, even men they were in over the weekend campaigning trying to enlarge the electoral map for romney? >> even if romney wins florida as we went through there, if he done win ohio he's got pind the votes somewhere else. if he loses ohio the paths they shrink down the single digits for governor romney. to increase his chances to get to 270 he has to find another state and they are looking for other states. pennsylvania, 96% of the vote happens on election day. not like when these early voting states. so, it's a razzle
. look at that right there. even if he wins nevada and colorado and north carolina, virginia, florida, new hampshire. he can get there. >> that's the difficulty that the romney campaign is faced with, the path of winning this electoral college is so tight, it's almost as if you have to draw inside straight tomorrow in what's going to happen in the race. and he has to, in my view, if you take a look at ohio, florida and virginia, mitt romney basically has to go 3 for 3 in those states in order to win this race. >> right. the only way he can get around that, somehow if he wins, all his path in winning, virginia, north carolina and florida. let's say he didn't get ohio and wins withes with. then he's got to run the table. nevada, and ohio. >> finally, the long ball, pennsylvania. if they can get pennsylvania, it changes the maps entirely. but having been through this before, the day before an election, the interesting thing, both sides are convinced they're going to win. both sides. >> do you still believe that? >> i still believe they're convinced they're going to win because they both
the out liar is michigan. i think his uaw stuff will help the president. they carry nevada. other than that i don't see him winning any of these states. >> we have 20 seconds left under your scenario governor romney can lose ohio and you will wind. 325. >>> ohio was over rated. pennsylvania, questions questions and a good shot footbal >>> we will be watching. i have this tape. like i sayou are either really smart. you told me accountable. >> florida congressman allen pest, 29 electoral votes. not atornadoing dick morris is here and joe tripypypypypy ♪ chances are, you're not made of money, so don't overpay for motorcycle insurance. geico, see how much you could save. a oo polling has president obama over romney. this will be a win score of governor romney he says. >> if somebody is really wrong and somebody is going to look like a genius on tuesday, and i think part of what is happening here and you see it in the two polls you talked about p-it is two different -- both campaigns have two different models turnout models they are looking at. that's why i agree. somebody is going to get
with the republican challenger. we are going to give nevada's other republicans here tonight. the incumbent with a three and a half point lead. he just got over the threshold. democrat shelley berkeley. and five are going to be given in ohio to democratic incumbent brown up to ivan f. points and republican challenger jon mandel. now, the open races, we go first to arizona, and we are giving this to the republicans. real clear politics is not have an average, but led the democrat by six in the latest poll. so for our purposes we are giving it. we will give connecticut democrat chris murphy with a four-point lead on the republican. as you can see, it is a difficult science. we will be following the basic, outside the margin medicare. and in indiana, another question mark. real clear politics does not have an average. the democrat is leading the republican in the latest press be simple, but by only three points, and therefore it remains a question mark. north dakota, we are giving it to the republican. over five and a half lead, close enough to call six on the democrat. and then we go to virgi
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